Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
